The 2026 Oil Price Spike: WTI and Brent During the Middle East Conflict

Context

EIA reports that crude oil prices rose in January and February on the increasing risk of a conflict in the Middle East, then more sharply after military action on February 28, 2026 and the de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz, when most shipping traffic stopped using the strait because of the risk of Iranian attacks on vessels.^[1] Many countries in the region, including Iraq, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, shut in oil production,^[1] and EIA estimates that shut-ins peaked at 10.9 million barrels per day in May and averaged 4.8 million in September.^[4] EIA attributes Brent's sharper rise relative to WTI in March in part to its exposure to higher shipping costs and reduced oil flows between regions near the strait.^[1]

Several other forces were at work. EIA estimates that global crude oil inventories fell by an average of 5.1 million barrels per day in the second quarter, and U.S. commercial crude stocks fell to their lowest seasonal level since 2014, with record U.S. crude exports and high refinery runs as key drivers.^[2] From April, reduced crude oil imports to China lowered global oil demand and absorbed part of the supply loss.^[3] Negotiated ceasefires came in the weeks from May 18, and on June 17 the United States and Iran signed a memorandum of understanding that sought, among other things, to resume traffic through the strait; tanker movements then increased.^[2]

Military strikes resumed on July 7. In September, attacks on oil infrastructure included pumping stations on Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline, a route used to bypass the strait, and Novorossiysk, one of Russia's major oil terminals.^[3] The pipeline was repaired and partially resumed flows as of September 22.^[4]

EIA reported in April 2026 that the United States was in the process of releasing 172 million barrels of crude oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, as part of a coordinated International Energy Agency effort to release 400 million barrels of crude oil and products. The release is structured as an exchange, which requires the original volume plus additional barrels to be returned to the reserve later.^[5] Releases slowed significantly in September.^[3] EIA reports reserve stocks each week in its Weekly Petroleum Status Report.^[6]